The Price of Gold

If you've read my previous article on 401K fund selection, you may have noticed I had American Century Global Gold as one of our options. I personally overweight my 401K to tax-inefficient holdings to keep low tax-drag equity investments in taxable. Hence, my 401K asset allocation is the following:
  • 20% Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities
  • 20% Vanguard Intermediate Treasuries
  • 20% American Century Global Gold
  • 20% PIMCO Commodities Return
  • 20% various equity funds

In the last few days, gold has hit $1000/oz so I'm feeling a bit anxious about my gold fund selection. But then a look back at the past 2 years and I see a big rollercoaster ride:
  • Mar 2008 -17%
  • Apr 2008 -12%
  • May 2008 +10%
  • Jul 2008 -11%
  • Aug 2008 -13%
  • Sep 2008 -8%
  • Oct 2008 -38%
  • Nov 2008 +25%
  • Dec 2008 +30%
  • Mar 2009 +13%
  • Apr 2009 -11%
  • May 2009 +34%
  • Jun 2009 -14%
  • Sep 2009 +15%

Luckily, I have auto-rebalancing triggered for the end of each calendar quarter (March, June, September, December). Quarterly rebalancing seems to have done a decent job in buying more at troughs and selling at peaks but monthly may even be better with extremely volatile asset classes (e.g. quarterly missed the -38% during Oct'08). I originally setup just quarterly because the gold & commodity funds have early redemption fees so I need to build up enough "old" shares available for rebalancing before I can switch to a monthly schedule. I may need to run the math on this to see if I'm at that threshold.

Moral of story -- uncorrelated asset classes are good. Uncorrelated with automatic rebalancing is even better. Now if I could only do some rebalancing on the gold wedding jewelry my wife has an emotional attachment to.


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